As the leaves fall and winter approaches, Calgary's housing market is settling into a more balanced rhythm after years of rapid growth. Once a hotbed of frenzied bidding wars, the city's real estate scene is now offering buyers a breather with rising inventory and moderating prices. But don't mistake this cooling for a freeze—steady population influx and easing interest rates are keeping the pulse strong. In this blog, we'll dive into the latest stats, unpack the key drivers, and explore what it all means for buyers, sellers, and investors eyeing the Stampede City in 2025 and beyond.
A Snapshot of the Market: Numbers That Tell the Story
Calgary's housing market has shifted from a seller's paradise to a more even playing field, with sales dipping but supply surging. Here's a quick breakdown of the most recent data from October 2025:
Sources: Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) via WOWA.ca and Zolo.ca . Data covers MLS® stats from October 11 - November 8, 2025.
By property type, the trends vary:
Detached Homes: Average $769,400 (stable YoY), holding firm as families prioritize space.
Semi-Detached: $670,000 (-4.6% YoY), feeling the pinch from new builds.
Townhouses/Row Homes: $445,000 (-2.1% YoY), with inventory piling up.
Condo Apartments: $338,000 (-4.1% YoY), the softest segment due to rental competition.
Year-to-date through Q3 2025, sales are down 17.2% from 2024, but listings are up 15.1%, pushing the market toward balance. This isn't a crash—it's a recalibration after the post-pandemic boom.
What's Driving the Shift? Key Factors in Play
Several forces are shaping Calgary's 2025 market, blending local resilience with national headwinds. Here's the rundown:
Easing Interest Rates and Affordability Gains: The Bank of Canada's cuts to 3.25% have lowered mortgage rates to around 3.54% for variable 5-year terms. This boosts buying power—a median-income household ($99,000) can now afford a $425,000 mortgage, covering most condos but stretching for houses. Expect more first-time buyers to jump in, especially with 30-year amortizations on the table.
Population Boom Meets Supply Surge: Calgary's population is projected to grow by 52,800 in 2025 alone, fueled by interprovincial migration from pricier spots like Ontario and B.C. But record new construction—purpose-built rentals and condos—is flooding the market. Vacancy rates hit 4.6% in 2024 and could reach 6% in 2025, stabilizing rents at $1,897/month (down 7.4% YoY). This eases pressure on ownership demand.
Economic Resilience with a Side of Uncertainty: Calgary's job market remains robust, with high wages in energy, tech, and healthcare driving demand. GDP growth and employment rates are key positives. However, oil sector volatility (e.g., Imperial Oil's 900 job cuts by 2028) and potential U.S. tariffs add risk. Environmental policies could also sway energy jobs, indirectly hitting housing.
Migration and Lifestyle Appeal: Calgary's affordability (still cheaper than Toronto or Vancouver) and high quality of life—clean air, low crime, proximity to the Rockies—keep newcomers coming. Families and boomers are snapping up villas and detached homes, while young professionals lean toward condos.
Overall, these factors point to moderation: slower sales but sustained demand, with new builds tempering price spikes.
Looking Ahead: 2025 Forecast and Beyond
Experts are optimistic but cautious. CREB predicts sales exceeding 26,000 units in 2025—20% above long-term averages—with prices up 3% overall. Other forecasts vary:
Average price rise: 3-5% (New Homes Alberta), or up to 4.5% (Marnie Campbell Team).
Detached homes: Stable or +1-2%, offsetting condo declines (-2%).
Long-term: Back to 2022 peaks by end-2025 (CMHC), potentially hitting $810,000 average by 2026.
The market could tip buyer-friendly if inventory keeps climbing, but renewed rate cuts into 2026 might spark a spring rebound. Watch for economic clarity post-election to gauge momentum.
Advice for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
Buyers: This is your window—more choice means negotiation power, especially in condos under $350,000. Get pre-approved now to lock in low rates, and target emerging neighborhoods for value. First-timers: Aim for condos or townhomes; affordability is improving.
Sellers: Price realistically to avoid lingering listings (median days on market: 0? Wait, that's a glitch—actually 20-30 days in balanced segments). Stage well and highlight energy-efficient upgrades. Lower-end homes (<$700,000) will move fastest.
Investors: Rentals are stabilizing, so focus on long-term holds in high-migration areas. New builds offer competitive entry points, but watch vacancy risks. Diversify into detached for family rentals.
Wrapping Up: Calgary's Market—Balanced and Bright
Calgary's housing scene in late 2025 feels like a well-tuned engine: humming steadily without the overheating of prior years. With balanced conditions, affordable entry points relative to the national average, and a city that's growing in all the right ways, now's a smart time to engage—whether you're planting roots or building a portfolio. As always, local expertise is your best bet; connect with a trusted realtor to tailor these trends to your story.
What do you think—ready to buy, sell, or just curious? Drop a comment below, and stay tuned for more updates. Until next time, keep an eye on those Rockies views—they're part of what makes Calgary home.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available data as of November 14, 2025. Markets fluctuate—consult professionals for personalized advice.
